Prices have been going up, up, UP since last November! November 2021. In June they dropped. The crash, the crash has begun, grab your pitchforks and bats protect your home prices, call your aunt June and tell her she’s the reason! Don’t do that it’s not her fault. Let’s talk about the reality of this, what it means… for you.

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What we’re seeing now, is about a 1% drop in the overall median price point in Nashville. There’s no affordable housing out there, house prices are so high right now that a lot of buyers have cold feet because – with rates being where they are, it’s a difficult time to make a purchase for your average person. But the other thing we’re seeing is an uptick in home inventory. That’s right since this time last year we’ve had record low inventory, well if you look here, you’ll see we’re inching upward every month. This seems in contradiction to prices going down, so what’s happening here?

Here’s what’s happening is this – it would appear anyway – inventory is going up because there are less buyers on the market, so it’s giving inventory numbers a chance to raise upward. You see inventory has been a bit deceptive in recent years. It looked like people were just listing less and less int he past couple years, but the reality is that as more people were able to buy homes in recent years with rates at record lows during the pandemic, inventory just couldn’t keep up. If we go look at the median price point numbers and compare them to recent years, you have to go all the way back to 2019 and you’ll see something familiar. Although prices are a lot higher now, the trend line appears to be very similar. It looks like what’s actually happening is that prices are normalizing. Yes, the trend is simply going back to what we would call some semblance of normalcy. 20 and 21 were wash years, they were a major boost in the housing market economy, just like the rest of the economy and so we may be seeing a slightly lower than normal low at the moment, but it’s a similar trend nonetheless and something that could have been anticipated at the beginning of this year since the country is taking many steps to getting back to normal. Normal is a debatable term, so I’m not going to elaborate on that, but I think you know what I mean. Maybe we’ll just call it “pre pandemic”.

Now, here’s what you should expect the rest of the year. I’m just going to take 2019 as an example… but you can even see a little bit of the trends taking a similar turn in 20 and 21, I think we’re going to continue to see a bit of a slump in the next two months before Q4. When we get into the third quarter though, I’m hearing from my financial people we may see mortgage rates actually reduce instead of increase? Who the hell knows, but the housing market is a fairly reliable marketplace, so I’m just going to say by September from the looks of it – October, maybe November, prices will come back up. Or maybe this year – because this is a year in response to Covid, it’ll be more of a leveling back off to our peak prices we’ve already seen.

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