FROM OUR MORTGAGE FRIENDS

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… Wall Street expects a rate drop in December to end the year. Note: In the lower chart, a 46% probability of change is a 54% probability the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.75%-2.00%

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON:CONSENSUS
Oct 301.75%-2.00%
Dec 111.50%-1.75%
Jan 291.50%-1.75%

 

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON:CONSENSUS
Oct 30   46%
Dec 11   68%
Jan 29   57%